Rolling coverage of the latest economics and financial news
- Latest: Pound rallies after YouGov poll
- House prices up 0.5% in November
- Fastest monthly inflation since July 2018
- Annual house price inflation at 0.8%
City economists have been busy digesting through YouGov’s poll, which predicts a 68-seat majority for Boris Johnson.
Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada reports the chances of a Conservative majority government have now hit 70% on Betfair – its joint-highest level of the campaign.
On YouGov’s model, the predicted Conservative majority disappears if the Conservative lead over Labour falls to around 7% points from the 11% they have in their results (similar to other polls). This is very similar to the threshold on a simple uniform national swing.
For the markets’ confidence in the election outcome to be maintained, the red dotted line in the second chart needs to start diverging from the path it followed in 2017. Otherwise, GBP’s latest gains look fragile.
Hope of a breakthrough in the US-China trade war have just taken a small knock.
China is considering banning the individuals who drafted America’s new legislation supporting the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
Based what I know, out of respect for President Trump, the US and its people, China is considering to put the drafters of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on the no-entry list, barring them from entering Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Macao.